Author(s): Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei; Piet Termonia; Hossein Tabari
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: Climate change has significantly altered the natural patterns of droughts, resulting in increased frequency, longer durations, and heightened severity in certain global regions. However, the effects of climate change on precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture can vary, resulting in diverse responses among different types of droughts to climate change. Therefore, understanding the effects of climate change on each drought type becomes crucial in developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies that are tailored to the specific characteristics and vulnerabilities of each type. These strategies are essential for addressing the challenges posed by the escalating frequency and severity of drought events and safeguarding communities, ecosystems, and water resources. This study explores the evolving landscape of droughts, encompassing meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought types on a global scale, under the influence of accelerating climate change. We examine and compare the impacts of climate change on these distinct drought categories globally using CMIP6 GCMs. Our results reveal distinct patterns in the responses of the three drought types to climate change across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The spatial distribution and magnitude of increasing signals in all five drought characteristics, including median intensity, peak intensity, median duration, longest duration, and frequency, exhibit an ascending order from meteorological to hydrological and then agricultural droughts. We observed that this same order holds for projections uncertainty and the significance of climate change signals. This finding has important implications for accurately assessing drought risks and tailoring effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in different regions. The study highlights that an all-in-one approach may not be applicable for drought analysis for different sectors under climate change due to the diverse and complex nature of drought impacts and responses across various types.
Year: 2024