Author(s): Hossein Tabari
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: As the world experiences rapid socioeconomic developments and the effects of climate change intensify, the risks posed by compound hot-dry events to water resources are becoming a growing concern. These events have the potential to exacerbate damages caused by drought events and significantly impact water systems, as well as both natural and human systems. This study aims to assess the global risk of future compound hot-dry events by focusing on the pivotal role of governance structure in shaping these risks. Leveraging simulations from 18 CMIP6 GCMs for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the analysis reveals a substantial increase in the probability of compound hot-dry events, affecting vast areas across the globe. Most importantly, the findings underscore the critical link between governance structures and the risks associated with compound events. Countries with weaker governance face disproportionately higher risks of compound hot-dry events compared to those with robust governance practices. The study further highlights a significant escalation in projected population and cropland exposure to future compound hot-dry events. Vulnerable communities in regions with weak governance are particularly at risk, facing potential consequences of food insecurity, water scarcity, and social instability. This underscores the urgent need for effective governance, proactive measures, and robust policies to enhance resilience and adaptive capacity with respect to water resources.
Year: 2024