Author(s): Antonia Ferreira; Joao Rolim; Claudia Brandao; Maria Do Rosario Cameira
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: According to the IPCC, climate change (CC) threatens the sustainability of agriculture, particularly in vulnerable regions such as parts of southern Europe where water shortages and increasing aridity make it difficult to sustain agriculture (IPCC, 2014). Of particular concern are regions where crop cycles coincide with high climatic demands and reduced precipitation (Zhang et al., 2019). Projections indicate a potential increase in irrigation demand due to increased crop water requirements, which serves as a basis for understanding the imminent pressures on water resources (Rolim et al., 2017). At the same time, water availability is expected to decline, due to the projected reduction in precipitation (Mourato, 2009). In this particular context, farmers rely on Collective Irrigation Systems (CIS) to store and equitably supply water to irrigate their fields (Cunha et al., 2019). The overall aim of this study is therefore to assess the potential consequences of this increasing demand combined with reduced water availability when using artificial reservoirs. Two key manifestations of this challenge are highlighted: first, the possibility that peak water demand exceeds the initial capacities of the CIS, leading to failures in water supply during periods of high demand (Daccache et al., 2010); second, there is a risk that cumulative seasonal water demand exceeds the capacity of reservoirs derived from direct precipitation and watershed inflows (Rocha et al., 2020; Esteves et al., 2023). A supply-demand balance is being developed and applied to assess of the dynamics of water resources management at a CIS level in the context of climate change. This study is being developed with data from the Minutos CIS in the southern of Portugal but can be also applied to other CIS in arid and semi-arid regions. In particular, the aim is to calculate water availability and demand under various climate change scenarios, with a particular focus on identifying potential failures in irrigation water supply. This approach will enable a more comprehensive understanding of how climate change affects water management in the CIS in these regions.
Year: 2024