Author(s): Neptune Yu; Ander K. C Chow; Terence H. F Leung; Christopher J. Wong; Dickson T. S Tsui; Ivan N. F Wong
Linked Author(s): Ngai Fung, Ivan WONG, Tak Shing, Dickson TSUI, Terence Leung
Keywords: Extreme wind speed climate change Monte Carlo Simulation
Abstract: Projection of tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in Hong Kong was studied using wind engineering stochastic approach, which is the Monte Carlo Simulation, under different greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios AR6 SSP2-4.5 and AR6 SSP5-8.5. 10,000 events were generated using Monte Carol Simulation to come up with various tropical cyclone tracks and characteristics. The extreme wind speeds at representative wind stations in Hong Kong due to these 10,000 number of stochastic-generated tropical cyclones could be determined. The increase in extreme wind speed due to climate change effects can also be determined when the change in tropical cyclone characteristics due to climate change is incorporated into the Monte Carlo Simulation.
Year: 2025