Author(s): V. Todaro; M. D'Oria; M. G. Tanda

Linked Author(s): Valeria Todaro

Keywords: Groundwater level; Climate change; Drought indices; SPI; SPEI

Abstract: The first purpose of the present study is to analyze the relationship between observed groundwater levels and two drought indices in an historical period. The second purpose is to predict the variation of groundwater level due to climate change. Groundwater represents a precious resource, especially in the critical period of the years when the surface flows are of very low quality and the need of water supply increases. Therefore, the analysis of the groundwater level response to climate change is essential and the discussion on this topic is increasing in the recent scientific literature. Groundwater levels depend on many factors such as the geological formation, the anthropogenic influences, etc. Due to the difficulties to quantify these elements, it is challenging to evaluate the effects of climate change on these important aspects. We try to apply a simple statistical approach to analyses the variation of groundwater level, in a certain number of wells, as a function of two simple drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI is a multiscale index that defines droughts as a function of only precipitation data. SPEI is analogous to the SPI, but describes droughts in terms of temperature and precipitation. The aim of our study is to investigate if a good correlation exists between the groundwater level and the drought indices and, in positive case, to apply the same correlation to future climate projections; this is a novelty with respect to previous works. The future drought indices were computed according to 13 EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model results, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The groundwater levels, in the different monitoring wells, were forecasted up to 2100.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2731-1_305-cd

Year: 2018