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Expect the Unexpected: Cascading Vulnerability Scenarios to Manage Water Resources

Author(s): A. Parisi; V. Monno; M. D. Fidelibus

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Keywords: Cascading vulnerability scenarios; Water resources management; Drought; Social-ecological systems; Salento peninsula

Abstract: The paper, by dealing with a coastal area depending on groundwater resources, aims at highlighting the potentialities of Cascading Vulnerability Scenarios (CVS) in the management of water resources affected by water shortage, exacerbated by droughts. The raise of water demand to support human activities and the exacerbation of drought periods trigger new issues about the qualitative and quantitative status of water resources. Moreover, a mismanagement of water resources and consequent worsening of water quality and quantity can generate creeping and cascading consequences on Social-Ecological Systems (SES) depending on water. As a matter of fact, negative consequences can follow a non-linear path, which is, in turn, complex and unpredictable because it depends on the vulnerabilities accumulated in different scales and systemic levels. Current water management practices seem unable to cope efficiently with the complexity of the dependencies between urbanised areas and water systems. Local communities and governments have increasingly experimented and adopted strategic approaches in the management of water resources. This paper suggests that water management could enormously benefit from a strategic approach, aimed at constructing CVS through qualitative data collection methods. Especially considering the issues related to climate change, thinking about the cascading effects that escalate a primary negative event (i.e. drought propagation, water shortage) would favour the comprehension of the non-linear and unexpected consequences on SES. The holistic perspective of cascading effects allows water managers to consider a wide range of visible and hidden outcomes linked to the worsening of qualitative and quantitative water status. The reference area, selected for building CVS and showing their potentialities, is the densely populated Salento peninsula located in the middle of the Mediterranean Basin (Apulia region, Southern Italy). In last decades, Salento area has suffered a worsening in groundwater quality. Historical data shows the raise of groundwater exploitation, inasmuch water supply depends almost entirely on Salento karst coastal aquifer, related to the growth of urbanization.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2731-1_308-cd

Year: 2018

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