Author(s): Bofu Yu
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Abstract: As concentrations of CO₂and other'greenhouse'gases are steadilyincreasing in the atmosphere,global warming in the near futurehas become one of the most critical environmental issues beingdebated in the scientific community. One of the most tangibleconsequences of the global warming is an eustatic rise in sealevel. Mainly because of uncertainties in the prediction of meanglobal temperature increases,estimates of the magnitude and therate of sea level rise vary considerably. At present,it seemsthat a 0.5m rise by 2050 is quite likely(Hoffman et al.,1986),due primarily to thermal expansion of the oceanic waters. Theimpact of sea level rise has been widely discussed (e.g.Titus,1987),and its major effects include widespread loss of wetlands,exacerbation of inundation,flood and storm damage. Therefore,aquantitative estimation of the flood level and area of inundationis essential when efforts are made to assess objectively thesocial and economic impact of sea level rise. In this paper,twocoastal floodplains with contrasting hydrologic and tidal regimeswere used to test a numerical model and to evaluate the effect ofsea level rise. The effect of large floodplain storage has beentaken into consideration in the model.Attention has been paid inparticular to the sensitivity of parameters and channel/floodplaingeometry to the simulation results. Such sensitivity studies areessential before the uncertainties in future scenarios can beconsidered.
Year: 1991