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Reconstructing Historical Flood Events Using Monte Carlo Approach and Automated HEC-RAS 2D

Author(s): Ramtin Sabeti

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Keywords: HEC-RAS 2D; Reconstructing Historical Floods; Batch Processing

Abstract: Reconstructing historical floods is essential for providing critical data on flood frequency analysis and improving flood risk management strategies. This study leverages a novel reverse engineering approach to present a general methodology for reconstructing of historical flood events. Given the high uncertainty of this process, a Monte Carlo approach is applied to consider a wide range of possible outcomes. Two-dimensional hydraulic modelling, specifically HEC-RAS 2D, is selected for its proven effectiveness and accuracy in reconstructing historical flood events. To streamline batch processing and reduce potential errors and time associated with manually running simulations, a workflow using Python scripts was developed to automate the HEC-RAS 2D model. This methodology is applied to reconstruct the 1968 Great Flood of Britain, which impacted southwest England, with a focus on the village of Pensford in Somerset, which was highly affected. Results indicate a high frequency of peak flows reaching 165 m3/s.

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Year: 2024

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