Author(s): A. Bencherqi; D. Hasnaoui; A. Verwey; F. C. Mabesoone
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Abstract: A flood forecasting procedure for flashy rivers is tested which makes optimum use of all data available at the time of forecast. The procedure includes a specially developed rainfall-runoff model which allows for infiltration from the catchment surface directly to the base flow zone. Discharges computed with the calibrated rainfall-runoff model are compared with the observed. discharges tocorrect: foruncertaintiesinthe. observedraindepths. Forecasts arefurther improved by including probabilistic rain depths during the lead time of the forecast. These expected rain depths follow from first-order. Markov chains derived from historical storms over the catchment. It is shown that, with this procedure, reliable forecasts are possiblewith a lead time approaching the lag time between the mass centre of rainfall depth and the peak of the discharge hydrograph of a catchment.
Year: 1993