Author(s): Dineshkumar Muthuvel; Xiaoseng Qin

Linked Author(s): n/a

Keywords: Gricultural Droughts; Conditional Probability; Copula; Drought Propagation

Abstract: Drought is a complex phenomenon since it exists in different forms, propagating from meteorological to hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic droughts over time in a non-linear order. Analyzing the propagation of events is useful in mitigating droughts via proper forecasting. Specifically, the present work deals with estimating the propagation rate between precipitation-based precursor meteorological droughts and soil-moisture-based antecedent agricultural droughts that are often responsible for crop failures. Hence, a conditional probabilistic approach is introduced to estimate drought propagation durations in Southeast Asia using copula. Standardized indices using monthly precipitation and soil moisture in the period from 1948 to 2023 are used in the study. The propagation process takes about 3 to 4 months in the monsoon-dominant regions of Mainland Southeast Asia, whereas the propagation is much quicker in the tropical regions of Indonesia. These details on drought propagation aid in forecasting agricultural droughts that could be helpful in mitigating their impacts.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P1793-cd

Year: 2025