Author(s): Elyada Eben Ezer; Nibroos Muhammad Nashshoor

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Dynamic adaptation pathways; Solution connectivity; Coastal protection measures; Safety level assessment

Abstract: In light of the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events driven by climate change, there is an urgent need to develop and implement effective, long-term coastal flood adaptation pathways to protect communities and infrastructure. Adaptation pathways is a decision-making approach designed to help manage uncertainty in planning for future conditions. While the current pathway generator provides a general visualization of potential coastal protection measures (CPMs), the manual process of connecting various measures to create technically feasible pathways remains a significant challenge. This study seeks to address this gap by developing a robust and adaptive tool designed to automate the generation of adaptation pathways. The primary objective of this tool is to identify the most effective pathway based on specific criteria, such as minimizing capital expenditure or incorporating nature-based solutions, to enhance flood resilience and reduce damage risks, thereby providing a more efficient and effective approach to flood risk management. The tool’s input comprises a list of CPMs tailored to meet the specific site requirements, in this context is North Jakarta Bay site. These CPMs will be evaluated against the required safety standards, taking into account factors such as the Mean High-Water Spring (MHWS) level, sea level rise, storm surges, and land subsidence. Should a CPM fail to satisfy the required safety level, additional CPMs must be implemented to ensure compliance. This scenario is referred to as a tipping point. By optimizing the pathways through multiple tipping points in alignment with the objectives (e. g., minimizing capital expenditure), the tool will formulate a dynamic adaptation pathway that can evolve over time in response to changing conditions and emerging risks. The outcomes of this tool’s implementation will yield significant benefits for a diverse range of stakeholders, including government agencies, local communities, environmental organizations, and private sector entities. By providing a robust and adaptive framework for coastal protection, the tool ensures that the infrastructure and strategies in place are resilient to the increasing threats posed by extreme weather events, such as rising sea levels, storm surges, and land subsidence. Overall, the tool provides a long-term solution that not only addresses immediate safety concerns but also adapts to evolving environmental conditions, thereby safeguarding communities and ecosystems for future generations.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P1987-cd

Year: 2025