Author(s): Jihoon Choi; Inhee Yeo; Jun Lee; Sujin Moon
Linked Author(s): INHEE YEO, JIHOON CHOI
Keywords: Sset management Deterioration rate Maintenance Residual lifespan Sewer pipe
Abstract: The total length of buried sewage pipelines in South Korea is around 160,000 km, with 40.2% classified as aged pipelines that have been underground for more than 25 years. Due to the deterioration of aging infrastructure, numerous sewage pipelines are facing issues such as damage, ground subsidence, and ongoing property damage. This study utilized GIS data from sewage pipelines in a designated area to assess their condition and prioritize the replacement of aging lines. To overcome the shortcomings of traditional scoring methods for evaluating pipeline conditions, fuzzy logic was applied to mathematically ascertain the degree of aging. The computed aging degree was subsequently used to model the rate of aging over time through non-linear regression analysis using the statistical programming language 'R. ' By applying the established aging rate model, the research predicted the likelihood of pipeline incidents occurring over time and employed the Poisson probability distribution to calculate the probability of incidents surpassing a specified target at the initial phase. If this probability exceeds a defined threshold, the study recommends assessing the pipeline’s lifespan to determine the need for replacement or rehabilitation. The results of this study, which predict the remaining lifespan of sewage pipelines, offer a mathematical framework for prioritizing maintenance tasks, such as replacement and rehabilitation, in the management of sewage infrastructure.
Year: 2025