Author(s): Tao Wang; Xinlei Guo; Hui Fu
Linked Author(s): Xinlei Guo, Tao Wang
Keywords: Ice conditions Yellow River parameter dentification BP-DEMATEL ice forecasting
Abstract: The development of ice conditions is affected by the interaction of various factors, such as hydrology, weather, and boundary conditions. The weights of the influencing parameters are the basis for improving forecasting accuracy and understanding the evolution mechanism of river ice. To this end, we constructed a back propagation (BP) -DEMATEL model for ice condition influence parameter identification based on an intelligent algorithm. The weights of the factors affecting the evolution of ice conditions were obtained and the impacts of the thermal and dynamic factors were elucidated for different ice condition stages. Factors with significant impact weights were used to predict the ice condition. The results showed that the ice conditions predicted using parameters with a strong correlation agreed better with the observation data. Therefore, the BP-DEMATEL model proposed for ice condition parameter identification can improve ice condition forecasting.
Year: 2025