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Cooling the Concrete Jungle: A Hybrid Statistical and Machine Learning Approach to Urban Heat Island Mitigation in Auckland Cbd

Author(s): Sihui Dong; Asaad Y. Shamseldin; Kilisimasi Latu; Conrad Zorn; Rachel Devine

Linked Author(s): Conrad Zorn, Asaad Yahia Shamseldin

Keywords: Green Roofs Climate Mitigation Machine Learning Urban Sustainability Urban Heat Island

Abstract: As urban temperatures rise, impacting both quality of life and ecological systems, green roofs are increasingly recognized as an effective strategy to support urban cooling. This study is part of a collaborative 'living roofs' project between the University of Auckland and Auckland Council. It utilizes three different green roof test bed configurations to evaluate their potential to mitigate the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Data on temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation, and atmospheric pressure are to be collected over a one-year period. To enhance the precision of UHI mitigation forecasts in the Central Business District (CBD) of Auckland, this study employs a hybrid model combining Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Long Short-Term Memory networks (SARIMA-LSTM). This model analyzes the potential impacts of low, medium, and high levels of green roof coverage in the CBD. The predictive outcomes aim to provide precise data support for urban planners and policymakers, assisting them in formulating effective urban greening strategies to alleviate the UHI effect and promote sustainable urban development.

DOI:

Year: 2025

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