Author(s): G. Rosatti; D. Zugliani; M. Pirulli

Linked Author(s): Daniel Zugliani, Giorgio Rosatti

Keywords: Debris-flow; Rainfall threshold; Backward dynamical methodology

Abstract: A novel, dynamical-based method for the determination of the intensity and duration of the rainfall pertaining to a debris-flow event is presented. The method has been used for the determination of a rainfall threshold for a study area. Forecasting if a storm can produce a debris-flow is a quite demanding challenge, even just within a probabilistic framework. The approaches present in the literature are based on the determination of the so called rainfall threshold, i.e. curves that split the Intensity-Duration domain in two zones, one above the threshold and one below. If a given storm shows a couple of values (I,D) that falls in the zone above the threshold, there is a high probability of debris-flow occurrence, if it falls below, there is a low probability. Indeed, the methodologies so far present in the literature give rise to thresholds that are unlikely low, and therefore they can not be used effectively in a forecast framework. For this reason, a novel method for the determination of the volume of rain pertaining to a debris-flow event was developed and hereafter presented.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2731-1_096-cd

Year: 2018