Author(s): A.B. Cavalli; V.V. Ilinich; I.G. Veliev; A.S. Timonina

Linked Author(s): Vitaly Ilinich

Keywords: Water reservoir regulation; Stochastic simulation; Risk assessment; Runoff regulation rules

Abstract: The research is aimed on development of providing additional information to the person making decisions regarding the control by water reservoir on the base of its stochastic simulation model. The Krasnodar reservoir was chosen as the object of investigation. The reservoir is located on the Kuban River in the North Caucasus. It has several water users that take water from both the upper and lower reaches of the dam; the main water user is rice irrigation. The main aim of the research is risk assessment of the plan water reservoir resource use and clarification of rules for the regulation of runoff. The researches were made on the data observation about daily runoff to the water reservoir during 33 years. The probabilities of water deficiency for every user estimated on the simulation model of the reservoir according to the existing rules of the river flow regulation. The simulation model was developed with help of program language C++. Calculations were performed by the following balance formula in respect to both month and 5 days time interval (pentads). The performed analysis made it possible to make a decision on the preliminary decrease of plan consumption before the period of the greatest probable occurrence of complete deficiencies.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2731-1_304-cd

Year: 2018