Author(s): Haoran Shi; R. Iestyn Woolway; Pengfei Xue
Linked Author(s): Pengfei Xue
Keywords: Great Lakes ice-blocked season shipping navigation climate warming
Abstract: Along with the St Lawrence River, the Laurentian Great Lakes form one of the longest deep draft navigation systems in the world. However, this waterway is currently not available in winter because of lake ice. The situation might change by the end of the 21st century since the Great Lakes basin is projected to become warmer and less ice-covered in the future due to climate warming. The present study analyses the projected ice data in the Great Lakes basin and aims to evaluate the impacts of future ice-reduction on the shipping navigations. We focus on 25 major ports along with the connection point between St Lawrence River and the Great Lakes (i. e., Wolfe Island) and estimate the future reduction of non-navigable ice-blocked season between different port pairs. Averaging over all selected port pairs, the ice-blocked season is projected to decrease from 78 days/year (2000-2019) to 40 days/year (2030-2049) and then to 14 days/year (2080-2099).
Year: 2025