Author(s): Muhammad Bilal Idrees; Haixing Liu; Zhou Xian

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Future water resource availability; Climate change; Emission scenarios; Global climate models; Sectoral water use

Abstract: Recently, China has undergone a new water management phase termed "national water grid" that emphasizes a new infrastructure development boom. The prediction of water resource availability given the changing climate in the context of future water uses is crucial for proper planning and management. This study explores the impacts of climate change on water resources under two emission scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0, using advanced Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations. Moreover, RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 emission scenarios have been combined with five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to simulate future total water uses in China of agricultural, industrial, domestic, and ecological sectors. Future water availability in China under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios has significant annual fluctuation while being relatively constant overall. Total water use increases until 2040, then stabilizes and eventually decreases until 2099. The main users of water are industry and agriculture, with the domestic and ecological sectors consuming less water overall. The results emphasize the value of taking preventative action to deal with anticipated water scarcity exacerbated by socioeconomic dynamics and climate change.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/HIC2024_P760

Year: 2024