Author(s): K. Patil; A. Jonoski; I. Popescu
Linked Author(s): Ioana Popescu
Keywords: Conflict and hydrological modelling; Power BI dashboard; Turkana Kenya; Water conflicts
Abstract: Complex socio-ecological dynamics in the Horn of Africa require innovative digital systems to guide policymakers. The paper presents a dashboard, built within the Water for Peace and Security (WPS) project, that provides an integrated framework for analysing the interaction between water scarcity, environmental stress, and social demands. The platform combines locally and internationally collected data on available water points with conflict data points validate with remote sensing analysis. This research helps to understand relationship between water-dependent resources and conflict patterns. A hydrological model of the Lake Turkana catchment was developed and coupled with a lake simulation model to analyse inflow variability, lake water level changes, and shoreline dynamics under different climatic and operational conditions. Additionally, an agent-based model (ABM) was designed to simulate resource-dependent behavioral responses among pastoralists, fishers, and farmers. The ABM reveals emerging spatial patterns of conflict driven by climate variability and water access constraints. The Power BI dashboard functions both as an analytical tool and as a collaborative platform. It enables local authorities, researchers, and communities to manage water resources and mitigate conflict risks in the Lake Turkana area. A key feature is the integration of water and conflict data, contributed by local actors.
Year: 2026