Author(s): R. Gomez-Beas; E. Contreras; M. Eguen; R. Pimentel; M.J. Polo; C. Aguilar
Linked Author(s): Rafael Pimentel, Ariosto Aguilar Chavez, María José Polo Gómez
Keywords: Climate change; Decision-making; Spring flow forecast; Mediterranean mountains; Snow-drought
Abstract: The high variability in precipitation patterns in Mediterranean mountain basins conditions the recurrence of droughts. Snow plays a key role in water resources in these areas and needs to be considered when defining droughts. The dynamics of melting change during a drought and, consequently, affect water in the components of the hydrological cycle; for instance, the variability of the spring water flow regime, commonly used to produce mineral water. A forecasting tool, PREDICT, has been developed in collaboration with end users to predict spring water flow, incorporating two approaches: conceptual model based on linear relationships from observation, and forecasting model derived from products generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The tool consists of two modules. The first allows the visualisation of simulated snow accumulation and observed data of snowfall and rainfall from two weather stations in the area, and identifies the presence or not of a snow-drought, along with measured spring flow data; the second displays forecast results up to one year ahead for the conceptual model, and up to six-month ahead for the forecast model. The combined visualization of forecasts, along with the measured flow data, provides managers with a tool to support decision-making.
Year: 2026