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Water Balance Modeling of the Nile River Behind Aswan High Dam and the Future Expectation

Author(s): Mohamed Soliman

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Abstract: Today, Egypt has a great stress on the available water resources. The quantity of available water is inversely affecting the national economic development. Various studies indicated that recent high population growth (2%) along with moderate industrial growth (+1%) and agriculture expansion will require about 90 BCM of water by 2050 under different scenarios. Moreover, the natural freshwater resources of Egypt (Nile River) may be influenced by upstream countries developments and climate change impact. Egypt usually overcomes the water imbalances between water supply and demand (about 20 BCM in 2017) using water recycling that increases the total water efficiency to 88%. Furthermore, the water quality is degraded which limits its use for specific purposes. Therefore, the government started to release different water infrastructures projects with expected investments estimated at 900 billion Egyptian pounds to build new desalination plants and huge wastewater treatment plant to increase unconventional water resources, which is expected to be 40% of the total resources. In this study, a vision for the future water status in Egypt through numerical modeling is presented. This vision is standardized by the current status of the available water resources. Recommendations to overcome anticipated water challenges and to optimize the available opportunities are provided. With the surface water resources of Egypt currently fully exploited, the need of alternative water resources has never been of profound urgency as it is nowadays.

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Year: 2024

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