Author(s): Artem Kochnev
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Caspian Sea water level drop; Water balance; Scenarios of water level
Abstract: The study deals with the Caspian Sea modern water balance. Sea level at main hydrological gauges, total river runoff to the Caspian Sea, total precipitation and evaporation data from the ERA-5 Land reanalysis and outflow to the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay are considered. Two probabilistic forecasts of the Caspian Sea water level change up to 2070 were given based on statistical assessments and a special forecast model. The first forecast relates to the current hydrometeorological condition of the sea, the second - undergoing climate change. The forecasts show a rapid drop of the Caspian Sea water level down to -30 meters and -32 meters (beyond sea level) driven by climate change models.
Year: 2024