Author(s): Huazhun Ren; Zhuoran Zhang
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Runoff; Simulation; BP-ANN; Correlation analysis
Abstract: Accurate inflow forecasting plays a very important role in the safe operation and optimal operation of reservoirs. In this paper, correlation analysis is used to select predictors, and a three-layer BP-ANN model is constructed. The model is applied to the mid-long term runoff forecast of Guan Yin Yan hydropower station dam site. The following conclusions are shown: (1) the results of correlation analysis show that Qi, j has a strong correlation with Qi, j-1, Qi, j-2, Qi-1, j and Qi-2, j, which can be used as the main predictor of the model. (2) the trained model is applied to the monthly runoff simulation of Guan Yin Yan Reservoir dam site. The simulation results show that the model has a good simulation effect during the training period and the test period, and the error meets the requirements of runoff simulation. It can be popularized and applied in monthly runoff simulation. (3) the NSE and R2 in the test period were 0.86 and 0.93, respectively, which were greater than 0.82 and 0.91 in the training period, reflecting the strong generalization ability of the model.
Year: 2024