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The Prediction Method of Many Patterns of Fuzzy Clustering on Flood in Chines North Area

Author(s): Zhikuizhu; Weiru Li; Gao Feng

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Abstract: Natural disaster is one of the major threats to the whole human beings. Water- logging disaster prediction was an important subject of International Decade of Natural Disaster Reducing in 1990. In our country, coming water in the flood season is over 709% of that of the whole year. Prediction during the flood season is very important to make full use of economic value of water resource and reduce the loss of people from waterlogging disaster. The prediction of during the flood season was studied by means of fuzzy mathematical method. In the paper, Fuzzy clustering analysis was made against the real measured data of coming water during the flood season using maximal tree method and soft partition cluster, and several prediction models of coming water during the flood season were built. Then the discharge of coming water during the flood season and its probability were predicted by means of a Gamma distribution and the method of fuzzy probability. General programs were written for the whole prediction proce- dure of the forecast scheme in this study. Based on the comming water prediction results of the MuYu reservior, Shandong province, the method and models proposed in this paper have efficient effects and can be put into practical use.

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Year: 1993

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