Author(s): K. Srinivasan; M. C. Philipose
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Abstract: A new procedure for streamflow drought analysis based on monthlytruncation level to find out the drought characteristics, also accounting for the month to month (within-year) carry-over effect, is evolved in this paper. This procedure combines the method of over-year drought analysis reported by Wang and Salas (1989) with that suggested by Herbst et al. (1966) to account for month to month carry-over effect. The procedure evolved is applied to analyze the drought characteristics of the unregulated monsoon streamflows into Krishnarajasagara (KRS) reservoir in the Cauvery river basin in Southern India. The same is also applied to a number of synthetic flow sequences generated using different low-order periodic streamflow models including a conventional three parameter Thomas-Fiering model with quantile lower bound (Stedinger, 1980). The drought duration and deficit sum computed using this procedure, could serve as practically useful validation statistics for stochastic streamflow models. The deficit sum calculated from this procedure seems to be overestimated in case of synthetic flows, which needs further examination.
Year: 1993