Author(s): Panagiota Galiatsatou; Panayotis Prinos; Sotiris Pagonopoulos

Linked Author(s): Panagiota Galiatsatou, Panagiotis Prinos

Keywords: Climate change; Precipitation extremes; Bias correction; EVT

Abstract:

In the current paper the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes in Greece are studied. The projections of Reg CM3_10 climatic model in particular are evaluated, for a time period of 150 years (1951-2100) in four regions of Greece. The available precipitation data is separated in three parts of equal size (fifty years each) ,in order to represent the fifty years of the current, the short-term and the long-term future climate. Model precipitation data is found to hold bias, commonly detected in regional climate models, making it necessary to perform various methods of bias correction. Both parametric and non-parametric methods are used for all four regions analysed, selecting the most appropriate for each region. Extreme value theory (EVT) is then implemented for the bias corrected precipitation datasets and both GEV (Generalized Extreme Value Distribution) and GPD (Generalized Pareto Distribution) are fitted. For the GPD, declustering of the excesses over the selected threshold is used to insure independence of exceedences. Return level estimates of each 50 year-period are calculated and compared to assess the changes in the extreme precipitation climate between present and future conditions.

DOI:

Year: 2015