Author(s): Daisuke Nohara; Tomoharu Hori
Linked Author(s): Daisuke Nohara, Tomoharu Hori
Keywords: Reservoir operation; Flood; Prior release; Monte Carlo simulation; Simulated generation of imperfect prediction
Abstract: A method to analyze impacts of prior release operation of a multi-purpose reservoir considering real-time inflow prediction is developed in order to support design of effective prior release operation method. Firstly, inflow prediction sequences for the coming 24 hours are artificially generated with designed error structures. Simulation on short-term reservoir operation for flood control including prior release is then conducted with the generated inflow predictions as a Monte Carlo simulation in order to evaluate the effect of prior release operation with imperfect inflow prediction. Simulation on long-term reservoir operation for water use is also conducted with the storage volume recovered at the end of each simulation on short-term reservoir operation to analyze effects and impacts of prior release on water use operation. The proposed method was applied to Kamafusa Reservoir in Japan, demonstrating the effectiveness of the method to support design of adaptive reservoir operation by clarifying the effects and impacts of prior release operation with imperfect hydrological prediction.
Year: 2015