Author(s): Huy Cong Vu; Ngoc Duong Vo; Quang Binh Nguyen; Philippe Gourbesville

Linked Author(s): Philippe Gourbesville

Keywords: Shoreline variation; Remote sensing; Danang bay

Abstract: Climate change is expected to be one of the most serious challenges currently faced by humankind. It will affect almost aspects of human well-being in the 21st century. The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of climate change on streamflow at Kon – Ha Thanh river catchment which covers an area up to 3131 km2 at south central coast of Vietnam. The SWAT model is used as a tool to estimate the change in the hydrologic regime at present and in future. The model is calibrated and validated for stream flow using daily flow data. The model efficiency is presented via Nash-Sutcliffe and correlation coefficients which reach to 0.77 and 0.88, respectively. The latest change scenarios from Vietnamese government (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used to analyze the variation of stream flow in three periods: 2016-2035, 2045-2065, and 2080-2100. The results show that under the impact of climate change, the flow in Kon – Ha Thanh river will vary complicatedly and severely in future. This flow may increase roughly 150.8% in flood season and reduce around 11.8% in dry season. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates that there are the changes in the flood dynamics as well as the hydrological shift of this region. This study presents an operational approach to integrate the results from the impacts of climate change to flood protection measures that would be useful in sustainable planning and devising resilience strategies.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2731-1_078-cd

Year: 2018