Author(s): Juan Marcen-Gutierrez; Jesus Asin; Jorge Castillo-Mateo; Ana C. Cebrian
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Keywords: Atmospheric covariates; Ebro basin; Rainfall statistical model; Subdaily precipitation simulation
Abstract: This work presents the development of a stochastic generator designed to produce synthetic hourly precipitation series at specific locations within a region. The generator consists of a set of nested models, which combines daily precipitation modeling conditioned on large-scale atmospheric situations, with a subdaily component, both incorporating seasonality and temporal dependence. The application of the generator is carried out in a region of the Ebro basin (Aragon, Spain), using observational data from the SAIH-EBRO network, and atmospheric data from the ERA5 reanalysis. Simulations for a particular station for the period 2014-2015 show a good reproduction of the observed precipitation distribution and of the distribution of accumulated rainfall in 48 or 72-hour runs. These results highlight the generator’s ability to reproduce precipitation dynamics at the hourly scale based on the current atmospheric situation, a useful tool for exploring and analyzing the effect of extreme events of precipitation.
Year: 2026