Author(s): Dina Vanessa Gomez-Rave; Diego Armando Urrea-Mendez; Manuel Del Jesus Penil
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Compound flooding; Estuaries; Vine copulas; Hydrodynamic modelling; Multivariate analysis
Abstract: Compound flooding arises from the interplay of multiple drivers—such as storm surge, waves, rainfall, and river discharge—whose co-occurrence can amplify impacts beyond those of individual events. Estuarine regions are particularly vulnerable to these interactions, yet conventional assessments rarely consider the coupled statistical and physical mechanisms that govern flood dynamics. Here we present a hybrid framework that integrates multivariate dependence modelling with process-based hydrodynamic simulations to characterise compound flooding in the Santoña estuary. Statistical relationships among six key forcings are represented using vine copulas, from which synthetic design events are generated for defined return periods. These events are then propagated through a two-dimensional model to simulate inundation patterns and evaluate the physical realisation of compound scenarios. By linking probabilistic structure with hydrodynamic response, our approach provides a coherent description of how multiple drivers combine to shape estuarine flood hazards, offering a transferable foundation for improved risk assessment and coastal adaptation planning.
Year: 2026