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A New Approach to Identifying Soil Conservation Priority Areas by Integrating the Complementary Roles of Soil Retention and Soil Erosion Indicators: Scenarios Across the Continuum of Planners' Optimism

Author(s): Eshetu Shifawa; Jinming Shab; Sokratis Papaspyroua

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Abstract: Soil sustains over 95% of food production in the world, which is crucial for human survival (FAO, 2015). Soil erosion is currently occurring at a rate significantly higher than that of natural soil formation (Wuepper et al., 2020). There are three significant limitations from scientific and regional perspectives. First, the existing methods for identifying soil conservation priority areas rely solely on the severity of soil loss, overlooking the equally important complementary role of soil retention services (e. g., Haregeweyn et al., 2017; Jing, 2023). We robustly identified conservation priority areas from a comprehensive index created by combining soil erosion and conservation indicators through the ordered weighted averaging method. Second, multiple scenarios for conservation priority mapping are essential to provide a range of options for decision-makers with different degrees of optimism and resources (Malczewski et al., 2003), yet such studies are rare. To that end, this study proposes eleven scenarios with varying priority areas, considering conservation tradeoffs and risks. In light of the previous limitations, this study aims to: (1) assess the spatiotemporally explicit distribution of soil retention and erosion in the UBN basin; (2). quantify the effect of class-to-class land cover transitions on soil retention and erosion; (3). propose a new framework for identifying soil conservation priority areas under multiple scenarios. Our goal is to contribute an evidencebased approach to empower decision-makers for soil conservation and restoration.

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Year: 2026

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