Author(s): Mohsen Bozorg; Hamed Mazandarani Zadeh
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Long-term energy planning; NSGA-II; Energy portfolio; Water footprint; Sustainability; Water–energy nexus
Abstract: Ensuring sustainable electricity production is a growing challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, where water scarcity, economic constraints, and environmental pressures are intensifying. In this study, a long-term optimization framework is developed to determine the optimal electricity production portfolio for Iran up to the year 2050. Historical national peak load data from 1995 to 2024 were used to forecast future electricity demand, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) incorporated as an explanatory variable to enhance prediction accuracy. The projected demand was then used as the basis for capacity expansion planning. Two optimization approaches were formulated and compared: a bi-objective model, minimizing (i) the combined carbon and water footprints and (ii) the combined land footprint and production cost, and a four-objective model, where each sustainability indicator (water, land, carbon, and cost) was minimized independently. Both optimization models were solved using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) implemented in MATLAB. The comparison of Pareto-optimal solutions reveals distinct trade-offs between environmental and economic objectives. The final proposed electricity generation portfolio integrates the country’s existing capacities and identifies the most sustainable expansion strategy for Iran’s power sector toward 2050.
Year: 2026